Over the past months, eastern and southern African countries have been hit by some of the most severe droughts in recorded history. With estimates of over 11 million people effected in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia alone, the effects of climatic conditions on agricultural productivity are conspicuous. Despite the current magnitude, strong fluctuations in climatic conditions are not new to eastern Africa. The region experiences high interannual and interdecadal variability in temperature and rainfall, forcing local farmers to adapt to extreme circumstances.
However, the effects of climate change are causing changing patterns and increased fluctuation throughout the region. Climate scientists have identified a rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, more severe compared to other oceans around the globe. Although reliable data in Sub-Saharan Africa is limited, there is strong significance that this is directly related to anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, with direct effects on temperature and rainfall in eastern and southern Africa.
The implications for agricultural productivity and nourishment are substantial. A study from the Food and Agriculture Organization[1] concluded that, over the past 25 years, the food-insecure population of eastern and southern Africa has doubled while per-capita cropped area has declined by 33%. Although overall food production has increased, development assistance and public expenditure have been drastically reduced. The result is a growing gap between agricultural capacity and population:
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS)
Countries must therefore find ways of adapting to climate change and population growth to tackle this gap. The Machakos district in Kenya is a prime example of such human adaptation. Once an impoverished region with eroding hills and more or less continual famine, it has since undergone a radical transformation; Over the past 60 years the population has grown by 500%, but the landscape is now characterized by flourishing terraces, greenery, and trees. The story of Machakos shows how the spirit of human ingenuity and innovation helped tackle erosion and resource scarcity, and increase the agricultural yield. Lessons from such projects can be transferred and implemented across the region to adapt to the effects of climate change.
There is little doubt that anthropogenic climate change and population growth will contribute to increasing famine throughout Africa. Governments must react quickly to improve agricultural productivity, and implement effective measures for adaptation and mitigation. Agricultural policies and governance, as well as public investments and international development assistance must keep pace with economic and population growth. More importantly, learning from successful local adaptation methods and human ingenuity is an effective way to tackle the effects of climate change. This is essential for maintaining sustainable growth in eastern and southern African countries in the future.
_________________________________________________________________________
[1] Food and Agriculture Organization (2006) State of food insecurity in the world
Edited by Marcus Huels (MSc International Health Policy)
